A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
